I think next real estate bubble..will be in Poland

Let's analyze the Polish economy :

1) The Polish economy is too dependent on foreign investment.
2) The major export is to Euro zone and Russia
3) Domestic industries are not enough strong to deal international market.
4) the domestic market is supported by excessive variable mortgages and borrowed money for the purchase of consumption goods
5) 600.000 people have Mortgages in swiss franc
5) Inflation zero
6) Trend of GDP is dropped.



If the crisis of Euro zone continue and EU not cancel the russian' sanction this will have effect on export, the goods should sale in internal market causing down fall of prices. Deflation nightmare.
In case act deflation cut interest on loan and continue to advertise by media easy and resonable loans that in middle time could cause the bubble of debt. If increase the salary to help people to spend buying goods in domestic market this cannot be done to force foreign investors to invest in worker salary and loose profit .I think is not plausible. So the way is to cut tax on salary that could be effect in deficit and stay in EU parameter will be hard. In case of reduction of industrial production this can be effect of unemployed rate, increasing of unemployed rate could be hazard. Because the the Polish economy is sustained by the private debt. I think the polish economy is trapped. I see the Economy depression in Poland. All economies forced by debt to grow are intended to depression. Only way to have stable economy to have a good savings management and ratio of household debt should not be greater than 1/3 of monthly household income. People should avoid variable loan and invest in foreign currency mortgage. It is necessary that every nation to prevent the crisis must invest in sustainable growth and the Gov must not create economic growth on the debt. Invest in Domestic industry prevent to depend to foreign investors.
I Think the Poland will be the new Greece or new Irland in short and middle term. That depend of how fast change the 6 variables that i already written above.

PA.